About

Independent economic analysis of Vietnam, written by a researcher based inside the country.

Why it exists

There is a gap between what Vietnam's official numbers say and what is actually happening on the ground. The General Statistics Office publishes a version of the story. State media repeats it. Foreign bank research repackages it. Most English-language readers never see past that layer.

Diagnosis is an attempt to close that gap. Each piece takes the official claim seriously, then tests it against the data, against the way the data was produced, and against what people who live and work inside the economy actually see.

Who writes it

Trung Truong — a researcher and writer based in Vietnam. I read Vietnamese fluently and hold positions on HOSE, which means I have skin in the same numbers I write about. I talk to bankers, brokers, founders, and civil servants who read the same data I do and often disagree with the official reading of it.

Every piece here is signed with my real name. The credibility and the risk sit on the same byline.

What Diagnosis covers

Macro (GDP, inflation, FX, trade), banking and credit, HOSE-listed equities and the companies behind them, State Bank of Vietnam policy, fiscal policy, structural reform, and sector deep dives on property, banks, tech, manufacturing, and energy. Where politics shapes economic outcomes, politics is in scope. Everything else is not.

What it is not

Diagnosis is not a trading service, not a newsletter of hot takes, and not a bull case or a bear case on Vietnam. It is an attempt to see the economy clearly, published one piece at a time.

Positions

Where a piece touches a held position, I say so at the foot of the piece. Current positions as of April 24, 2026:

Contact

Write to trbatrung@gmail.com or reach me on LinkedIn. Corrections, tips from inside the economy, and disagreements from people who know their subject are all welcome.